Fri 21 Nov 2008, 9:16 GMT
SCENARIOS-Is Somalia on the verge of an Islamist takeover?
By Andrew Cawthorne
NAIROBI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Rampant piracy offshore and an advance by Islamist rebels on Mogadishu have put Somalia's long-running civil conflict in the global spotlight.
Here are some possible scenarios for the country.
ISLAMIST TAKEOVER?
* After a two-year insurgency, Islamist fighters are within nine miles (six km) of the capital and President Abdullahi Yusuf admits his Western-backed government is on the verge of collapse. The Islamists or aligned groups now control most of the south, except Mogadishu and the seat of parliament, Baidoa.
* The Islamists' momentum in recent months has led to some predictions of an imminent assault on the capital, where they launch regular guerrilla-style attacks on the government and its Ethiopian military allies.
* But the rebels are split. The most militant wing, al Shabaab, which is on Washington's terrorist list, is urging jihad, or holy war. Moderate elements in another faction, the Islamic Courts Union, are leaning towards talks. The umbrella opposition Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) is divided into a pro-peace group known as ARS-Djibouti and a hardline wing ARS-Eritrea.
* Some analysts say the Islamists may be quietly satisfied with the current, Iraq-style situation of daily attacks in Mogadishu, drawing in African peacekeepers and keeping Somali-Ethiopian troops bogged down. The presence of several thousand Ethiopian troops -- who beat them militarily at the end of 2006 -- is a major deterrent to an assault on the city.
* Should the Islamists take the capital, hardline leaders say they will impose sharia law across the south. Washington fears that would make it a haven for al Qaeda-linked extremists, and neighbouring Ethiopia fears a push on its ethnically Somali regions. But some regional diplomats say the world should have nothing to fear from an Islamist-led Somalia, provided -- crucially -- al Shabaab and other militants are marginalised. The northern states of Somaliland and Puntland run their own affairs, with the former having declared itself independent.
* Islamist leaders have publicly vowed to stamp out piracy if they take over and cite their action against gangs when they ruled the south for half of 2006. But analysts say some factions, including Shabaab, are increasingly linked to piracy, using the gangs to bring arms from abroad and sharing spoils.
POWER-SHARING?
* After 14 attempts to re-establish effective central government in Somalia since warlords toppled a dictator in 1991, another one came along this year. The U.N. special envoy to Somalia, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, has been leading talks in Djibouti between the government and moderate Islamists.
* Both sides have signed a ceasefire in principle and an agreement to form a power-sharing government. But with hardline Islamists stepping up attacks every time the peace process moves a notch forward, it has had no impact in stemming violence on the ground. Further, Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein says Yusuf himself is opposed to the peace process. "The president is an obstacle, no doubt," he told Reuters this week, underlining rifts that are frustrating the government's foreign backers.
* East African nations and the wider international community are backing power-sharing as the best way to avoid the collapse of Yusuf's government while adapting to the reality of Islamist power on the ground.
* A regional summit in Nairobi at the end of October gave the Somali government a 15-day deadline for a cabinet reshuffle to bring in some moderate opponents. The deadline has expired.
FOREIGN INTERVENTION?
* Any talk of foreign intervention in Somalia is tinged with memories of disastrous U.N. and U.S. interventions in the early 1990s, perhaps most vividly illustrated by the "Black Hawk Down" battle in 1993 when 18 American troops were killed.
* The African Union (AU) has a 3,000-strong peacekeeping force of Ugandans and Burundians, but they have been unable to do much more than guard a few key installations like the presidential palace and airport. Both of those have been hit by insurgents, however, and AU troops themselves are targets too.
* The AU is struggling to increase the force to an intended 8,000, though Nigeria and others are talking of soon sending reinforcements. The pan-African body's preferred option, however, is to hand over to the United Nations.
* The U.N. Security Council appears to have no political appetite for another major intervention in Africa -- at a time when it is facing criticism over failing to keep the peace in Congo and Darfur -- but has begun contingency planning in case.
* By contrast, foreign nations have swung into quick action to try to contain piracy which has reached unprecedented levels this year in the nearby Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean waters.
* The NATO alliance and the European Union (EU) have sent ships, while the United States, France, Russia, India and others have all stepped up patrols in the area. As if mocking their efforts, pirates took a Saudi supertanker off Kenya last weekend in their biggest and geographically furthest strike yet.
* Ethiopia has been quietly withdrawing soldiers it sent in 2006 to back the government. But it still has several thousand there and is viewed as unlikely to pull them all out for fear of an al Shabaab assault on Mogadishu.
CHAOS AS NORMAL?
* In the absence of any major shift in Somali politics, the current quagmire would simply continue.
* Fighting has killed 10,000 civilians since early 2007 and more would undoubtedly be caught up in daily clashes. More than 1 million are internal refugees, and that number would grow.
* Foreign fighters may continue to be attracted to "Africa's Iraq" which militants present as a war against infidel invaders.
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Showing posts with label Islamic Militants. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Islamic Militants. Show all posts
Sunday, 23 November 2008
Mogadishu clashes leave 20 dead, 15 wounded
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Mogadishu clashes leave 20 dead, 15 wounded
Mogadishu, Somali Militants, Somalia, Somali capital, Ethiopia, Ethiopian troops, Islamic Militants
MOGADISHU, Nov. 21 (Xinhua) -- Heavy fighting between insurgent fighters and Somali government forces and Ethiopian troops in the Somali capital of Mogadishu has left nearly 20 people dead and almost 15 others wounded, police and witnesses said Friday.
Fifteen people, most of them young men, were killed after a gunfight between Somali government security forces and heavily armed fighters, who attacked the home of a Somali government official in the southwest of the restive capital, witnesses said.
It is not yet clear who the dead were but police spokesman, Colonel Abdulahi Hassan Barise, claimed that they were insurgent fighters.
Barise said his forces lost two men while four others were wounded in the gunfight that lasted for nearly two hours.
In separate clashes involving Ethiopian and insurgent fighters in the northeast of Mogadishu, three civilians were killed and 11 others were wounded after stray shells and bullets hit residential areas away from the battle scenes, witnesses told local media.
The escalation in fighting between insurgent fighters and Somali government forces and their Ethiopian allies comes on the day the Ethiopian troops were expected to withdraw from some of their bases in Mogadishu in accordance with a peace agreement between Somali government and a faction of the opposition Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS) signed in Djibouti last month.
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Mogadishu clashes leave 20 dead, 15 wounded
Mogadishu, Somali Militants, Somalia, Somali capital, Ethiopia, Ethiopian troops, Islamic Militants
MOGADISHU, Nov. 21 (Xinhua) -- Heavy fighting between insurgent fighters and Somali government forces and Ethiopian troops in the Somali capital of Mogadishu has left nearly 20 people dead and almost 15 others wounded, police and witnesses said Friday.
Fifteen people, most of them young men, were killed after a gunfight between Somali government security forces and heavily armed fighters, who attacked the home of a Somali government official in the southwest of the restive capital, witnesses said.
It is not yet clear who the dead were but police spokesman, Colonel Abdulahi Hassan Barise, claimed that they were insurgent fighters.
Barise said his forces lost two men while four others were wounded in the gunfight that lasted for nearly two hours.
In separate clashes involving Ethiopian and insurgent fighters in the northeast of Mogadishu, three civilians were killed and 11 others were wounded after stray shells and bullets hit residential areas away from the battle scenes, witnesses told local media.
The escalation in fighting between insurgent fighters and Somali government forces and their Ethiopian allies comes on the day the Ethiopian troops were expected to withdraw from some of their bases in Mogadishu in accordance with a peace agreement between Somali government and a faction of the opposition Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS) signed in Djibouti last month.
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Dozens Killed as Fighting Intensifies in Somalia
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November 22, 2008
Dozens Killed as Fighting Intensifies in Somalia
By MOHAMMED IBRAHIM and SHARON OTTERMAN
MOGADISHU, Somalia — At least two dozen people, including six children, were killed in heavy fighting here in Somalia’s capital on Friday as government troops tried to reassert control and Islamist insurgents fought back fiercely, witnesses said.
Bodies littered the streets of the bullet-pocked city, and hundreds of residents began to flee. Both sides claimed victory.
Violence between Islamist rebels and government forces has intensified over the past few weeks. Islamist insurgents now control much of south central Somalia, including many neighborhoods within Mogadishu, and seem intent on seizing the few enclaves the government, with Ethiopian muscle, still controls.
The gun battles on Friday started just after dawn outside the house of a local district commissioner, Ahmed Daaci, in a southern neighborhood of the city. At least 17 people died and 6 were wounded in that fighting, according to witnesses’ accounts.
Mr. Daaci, who survived the attack, said that government forces had repulsed a group of insurgents who attacked his house, and that 17 of the attackers were killed.
The bodies were left on display for hours, after government forces blocked residents from collecting them, an apparent attempt to ward off further attacks.
“I saw 12 dead bodies lying on the streets, and there were 2 bodies in front of my house,” said Abdurashid Abdullahi, a resident of the Medina neighborhood, where the fighting took place. “They are the Islamists,” he said.
More fighting erupted in the afternoon, when Islamist insurgents and government forces, backed by Ethiopian troops, fired artillery at each other. Six children were killed when a mortar shell slammed into their house, said a resident who lived next to the crushed building.
Ethiopian troops were to start leaving some positions in Mogadishu on Friday, under terms of a recent United Nations-brokered peace deal in Djibouti between the transitional government and a coalition of Islamist groups. African Union troops are scheduled to replace them.
But there were no signs of a withdrawal, witnesses said.
One of the insurgent groups, a faction of the Union of Islamic Courts, considered one of the more moderate Islamist groups in Somalia, said it had lost six men in the day’s fighting and had killed 15 government soldiers. The figures could not be independently verified.
Ethiopian troops entered the country in late 2006 and ousted an Islamist administration that briefly controlled much of south and central Somalia. But the Islamists regrouped, and have steadily progressed from staging sporadic hit-and-run guerrilla attacks to seizing — and holding — large swaths of territory.
A deal reached late last month between the transitional government and the main Islamist-led opposition group called for Ethiopian troops to pull out of areas in Mogadishu and the central garrison town of Beledweyne by Nov. 21, which was Friday.
Under the deal, the Somali government and the opposition Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia are to assemble a 10,000-strong police force to help the African Union peacekeepers control the areas.
Somalia has been without a functioning central government since 1991, when Mohammed Siad Barre was removed from power and the army fell into the hands of clan militias, throwing the country into lawlessness.
Mohammed Ibrahim reported from Mogadishu, and Sharon Otterman from New York.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
November 22, 2008
Dozens Killed as Fighting Intensifies in Somalia
By MOHAMMED IBRAHIM and SHARON OTTERMAN
MOGADISHU, Somalia — At least two dozen people, including six children, were killed in heavy fighting here in Somalia’s capital on Friday as government troops tried to reassert control and Islamist insurgents fought back fiercely, witnesses said.
Bodies littered the streets of the bullet-pocked city, and hundreds of residents began to flee. Both sides claimed victory.
Violence between Islamist rebels and government forces has intensified over the past few weeks. Islamist insurgents now control much of south central Somalia, including many neighborhoods within Mogadishu, and seem intent on seizing the few enclaves the government, with Ethiopian muscle, still controls.
The gun battles on Friday started just after dawn outside the house of a local district commissioner, Ahmed Daaci, in a southern neighborhood of the city. At least 17 people died and 6 were wounded in that fighting, according to witnesses’ accounts.
Mr. Daaci, who survived the attack, said that government forces had repulsed a group of insurgents who attacked his house, and that 17 of the attackers were killed.
The bodies were left on display for hours, after government forces blocked residents from collecting them, an apparent attempt to ward off further attacks.
“I saw 12 dead bodies lying on the streets, and there were 2 bodies in front of my house,” said Abdurashid Abdullahi, a resident of the Medina neighborhood, where the fighting took place. “They are the Islamists,” he said.
More fighting erupted in the afternoon, when Islamist insurgents and government forces, backed by Ethiopian troops, fired artillery at each other. Six children were killed when a mortar shell slammed into their house, said a resident who lived next to the crushed building.
Ethiopian troops were to start leaving some positions in Mogadishu on Friday, under terms of a recent United Nations-brokered peace deal in Djibouti between the transitional government and a coalition of Islamist groups. African Union troops are scheduled to replace them.
But there were no signs of a withdrawal, witnesses said.
One of the insurgent groups, a faction of the Union of Islamic Courts, considered one of the more moderate Islamist groups in Somalia, said it had lost six men in the day’s fighting and had killed 15 government soldiers. The figures could not be independently verified.
Ethiopian troops entered the country in late 2006 and ousted an Islamist administration that briefly controlled much of south and central Somalia. But the Islamists regrouped, and have steadily progressed from staging sporadic hit-and-run guerrilla attacks to seizing — and holding — large swaths of territory.
A deal reached late last month between the transitional government and the main Islamist-led opposition group called for Ethiopian troops to pull out of areas in Mogadishu and the central garrison town of Beledweyne by Nov. 21, which was Friday.
Under the deal, the Somali government and the opposition Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia are to assemble a 10,000-strong police force to help the African Union peacekeepers control the areas.
Somalia has been without a functioning central government since 1991, when Mohammed Siad Barre was removed from power and the army fell into the hands of clan militias, throwing the country into lawlessness.
Mohammed Ibrahim reported from Mogadishu, and Sharon Otterman from New York.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
Ethiopian troops remain in Somali capital
Ethiopian troops remain in Somali capital
Ethiopian troops yet begin to withdraw from key positions in Somali capital
Ethiopians had agreed to withdraw from some bases by Friday
They were supposed to do so under a peace agreement designed to end conflict
MOGADISHU, Somalia (CNN) -- Ethiopian troops have not yet begun to withdraw from key positions in the capital of Somalia two days after they were supposed to do so under a peace agreement designed to end years of conflict.
The Ethiopians had agreed to withdraw from some bases by Friday under an agreement signed last month by the Somali transitional government and a rebel faction known as the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia.
Ethiopia invaded Somalia two years ago to expel Islamic forces who had conquered Mogadishu. Under the deal signed October 26, a cease-fire between the transitional government and the ARS went into effect November 5. The Ethiopians were to withdraw from from key positions in the capital on November 21, and leave the country entirely early in 2009.
Somali Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein has said that Ethiopian troops will withdraw as agreed.
Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, a moderate leader of the rebel ARS, told the local radio station Shabelle Saturday that the Ethiopian troops would pull out on schedule.
Insurgents clashed with Somali government forces and their Ethiopian allies Friday, witnesses said, leaving at least 11 fighters dead.
The fighting started when armed insurgent fighters attacked the house of a local commissioner in Mogadishu's Wadajir district, sparking heavy fighting between the government troops guarding the house and the insurgents.
"I saw 11 men wearing red turbans on the heads dead on the ground," local resident Mohamed Haji Ali told CNN by phone from a house near where the clashes took place. Other residents provided a similar death toll.
The commissioner whose house was attacked, Ahmed Da'd, said that his soldiers killed 17 insurgents. He displayed what he said were some of the dead insurgents for the media.
It is not clear what will happen if the Ethiopian troops remain in Mogadishu despite the October 26 peace deal. Under that agreement, government and opposition members will form a 10,000-member joint police force to keep order, along with the African Union peacekeeping mission now in place and a U.N. force to be deployed later. Both sides will work toward establishing a unity government in Somalia, which has been riven by 17 years of strife since the collapse of its last fully functional government.
Ethiopia invaded Somalia in December 2006 to install the transitional government in Mogadishu after a decade and a half of near-anarchy. The invasion had the blessing of the United States, which accused the Islamic Courts Union -- which captured Mogadishu earlier that year -- of harboring fugitives from al Qaeda. The Islamists responded with a guerrilla campaign against government and Ethiopian troops.
Efforts to replace the Ethiopians with an African Union-led peacekeeping mission faltered as the violence worsened, and heavy fighting in Mogadishu and other cities drove hundreds of thousands from their homes. The lawlessness also spilled on to the seas off the Horn of Africa, where international vessels are routinely hijacked by suspected Somali pirates who demand large ransoms.
Journalist Abdinasir Mohamed Guled and CNN's Mohammed Amiin and Amir Ahmed contributed to this report.
Find this article at:
Links referenced within this article
Copyright 2008 Cable News Network.
Ethiopian troops yet begin to withdraw from key positions in Somali capital
Ethiopians had agreed to withdraw from some bases by Friday
They were supposed to do so under a peace agreement designed to end conflict
MOGADISHU, Somalia (CNN) -- Ethiopian troops have not yet begun to withdraw from key positions in the capital of Somalia two days after they were supposed to do so under a peace agreement designed to end years of conflict.
The Ethiopians had agreed to withdraw from some bases by Friday under an agreement signed last month by the Somali transitional government and a rebel faction known as the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia.
Ethiopia invaded Somalia two years ago to expel Islamic forces who had conquered Mogadishu. Under the deal signed October 26, a cease-fire between the transitional government and the ARS went into effect November 5. The Ethiopians were to withdraw from from key positions in the capital on November 21, and leave the country entirely early in 2009.
Somali Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein has said that Ethiopian troops will withdraw as agreed.
Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, a moderate leader of the rebel ARS, told the local radio station Shabelle Saturday that the Ethiopian troops would pull out on schedule.
Insurgents clashed with Somali government forces and their Ethiopian allies Friday, witnesses said, leaving at least 11 fighters dead.
The fighting started when armed insurgent fighters attacked the house of a local commissioner in Mogadishu's Wadajir district, sparking heavy fighting between the government troops guarding the house and the insurgents.
"I saw 11 men wearing red turbans on the heads dead on the ground," local resident Mohamed Haji Ali told CNN by phone from a house near where the clashes took place. Other residents provided a similar death toll.
The commissioner whose house was attacked, Ahmed Da'd, said that his soldiers killed 17 insurgents. He displayed what he said were some of the dead insurgents for the media.
It is not clear what will happen if the Ethiopian troops remain in Mogadishu despite the October 26 peace deal. Under that agreement, government and opposition members will form a 10,000-member joint police force to keep order, along with the African Union peacekeeping mission now in place and a U.N. force to be deployed later. Both sides will work toward establishing a unity government in Somalia, which has been riven by 17 years of strife since the collapse of its last fully functional government.
Ethiopia invaded Somalia in December 2006 to install the transitional government in Mogadishu after a decade and a half of near-anarchy. The invasion had the blessing of the United States, which accused the Islamic Courts Union -- which captured Mogadishu earlier that year -- of harboring fugitives from al Qaeda. The Islamists responded with a guerrilla campaign against government and Ethiopian troops.
Efforts to replace the Ethiopians with an African Union-led peacekeeping mission faltered as the violence worsened, and heavy fighting in Mogadishu and other cities drove hundreds of thousands from their homes. The lawlessness also spilled on to the seas off the Horn of Africa, where international vessels are routinely hijacked by suspected Somali pirates who demand large ransoms.
Journalist Abdinasir Mohamed Guled and CNN's Mohammed Amiin and Amir Ahmed contributed to this report.
Find this article at:
Links referenced within this article
Copyright 2008 Cable News Network.
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